May. 25, 2022

Poland Recovers Lviv

Having failed in their attempts to block the Russian Federation from securing Eastern Ukraine and much of the Black Sea shore line and facing the loss of 12,000 personnel in the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk region, the Ukrainian government is handing control of their country to Poland. is reporting that, “While the AFU (Kiev led forces) are retreating on the Donbass front lines, the Kiev regime is selling Ukraine’s statehood to the west.
Zelensky decided to grant Polish citizens a special status. They reportedly receive the rights to hold elective positions, become judges, get access to secret data, etc.
The Ukrainian authorities are putting the remaining territory under Poland’s control. In exchange the Polish military is expected to support the Ukrainian Army.

Just a day after this announcement, Poland, thinking themselves energy secure with Ukrainian and other European national resources has terminated their gas supply contract with Russia. RT News quotes Polish Commissioner for Strategic Energy Infrastructure Piotr Naimsky stating that;

After 30 years, it can be stated that relations in the gas industry between Poland and Russia have ceased,” (although most readers of world news know that it is Russia which has halted supplies to Poland for their refusal to use the Russian Ruble in trade)

Naimsky is basing his stance on Poland's belief that the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which was previously used to pump natural gas from Russia, could be used for supplies from Germany.

My questions to Naimsky are;
Where do you think Germany gets its gas?
Why would they share a limited, expensive supply with Poland?

I ask because in February of this year EURONEWS was suggesting that Germany, the biggest consumer of Russian gas, can also import from Norway, the Netherlands, Britain and Denmark via existing pipelines. However the article goes on to say that Norway, Europe's second largest supplier (behind Russia), “is already delivering natural gas at maximum capacity and cannot replace supplies from Russia” its prime minister has said.

Neighbouring countries can transfer gas via interconnectors, but nations may be unwilling to part with gas they might need and importers would have to pay a high price.

Barclays analysts say fully replacing 150 billion-190 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year of Russian gas to the EU is not achievable in the short term which makes Poland's moves even more questionable.

Poland knows that only a few weeks ago, at the end of April this year German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany is “completely phasing out Russian energy imports” and plans to stop Russian oil imports by the end of 2022.  A questionable move according news magazine FORBES;
'Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian natural gas may be partially offset by a deal reached with Qatar in March to supply liquefied natural gas to Germany, along with increased gas and oil imports from existing partners, but experts have warned Germany may face significantly elevated prices without Russian energy.'

Poland also knows that by May, only a month into negotiations with Qatar things are not going smoothly for Germany which is why Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is this week pleading with other European nations to fill in Poland's self-inflicted energy vacuum.

On the surface it would seem that Poland's 'integration' with the Ukraine is an effort to secure Ukraine's resources to make up for the loss of Russian imports, but they are going through a lot of trouble to prove a point to Russia. Could there be other motivations for Poland's move into the Ukraine besides energy security?
I quote Brett Redmayne-Titley for a very good answer to this question;

“ 760 years old, Lviv City is situated on the crossing of two profitable ancient trade routes. It developed and flourished rapidly and became one of the main trade centers of medieval Europe. It is reportedly a beautiful city full of the architecture of many influences including Austrian, Ukrainian and Polish since at various times in history all three laid claim to Lviv.

Lviv became part of Ukraine when taken by the Ukrainians from Austria in November 1918 with the creation of the West-Ukrainian People’s Republic and the unification with Great Ukraine. But Lviv became Polish from 1919 to 1939 and Polish culture via immigration put a Polish stamp forever on Lviv that remains strong today. This takeover only served to intensify the resistance of the Ukrainians and consolidate them in the fight for a return of Lviv to Ukrainian sovereignty.

In September 1939, as a result of collusion between Stalin and Nazi Germany, Lviv became a part of the Soviet empire and with Ukraine being a USSR satellite it was returned to Ukraine under the terms of the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement.

Here lies the rub, or possibly Poland’s ulterior motive in repeatedly dangling a means for NATO to enter Ukraine during the past few weeks.

The Poles have never been happy with the Soviet land grab that included Lviv and this is yet another reason they detest all things Russian. In talking with several Poles they would like to see Lviv returned to Poland, but the reality that this would require war has meant that it was just not worth the sacrifice.

Until a month ago such grand designs were opposed due to the need for a war to accomplish them. Now, that war is on the border and for the opportunists who may wish to reap the spoils of this war this may be their moment of opportunity. Poland sees this war as a chance not seen since the annexation of 1939. ”

...but Duda was able, did, and achieved. If without hoarse prettiness, the country is given to him, completely — and two full-fledged Polish brigades are already being deployed for battle near Pavlograd — either zholnezhs, or mercenaries, this is not so important, and on the border of Ukraine with Belarus, Polish DRGs in "Ukrainian" uniforms began to play pranks, "
Russian journalist Yuri Vasilyev

It would appear that Russia's 'Special Operation' which was originally intended to be complete by now has run into some Polish quicksand. Although not formally 'in' the Ukraine today, Poland and by extension NATO will be there in days. When Polish/NATO forces begin hostilities against Russian forces, and Russia fires back then Poland can invoke NATO Article 5 which will bring all of NATO into the conflict.

I pray for my family and the millions of other families who will become part of this. With Poland's moves the outbreak of a wider conflict is not 'if' but 'when'.


A Star Algol